Версия для печати темы

Автор: zhuk_ao 9.10.2009, 19:37

Задача:
Вероятность изготовления изделия с браком на данном предприятии равна 0,04. Перед выпуском изделие подвергается упрощенной проверке, которая в случае бездефектного изделия пропускает его с вероятностью 0,96, а в случае изделия с дефектом – с вероятностью 0,05.
Определить какова вероятность того, что изделие, выдержавшие упрощенную проверку – бракованное?


Вроде простоя задача. Мое решение P = 0.04*0.05 ??? Тогда для чего еще условия в задаче???

Автор: тень 10.10.2009, 5:52

вы определили количество бракованных изделий, прошедших
проверку. А сколько вообще изделий прошло проверку?
Ведь в этом случае вероятность, по определению, отношение бракованных, прошедших
проверку, ко всем прошедшим проверку.

Автор: malkolm 10.10.2009, 8:44

Цитата(тень @ 10.10.2009, 12:52)

Автор: Juliya 10.10.2009, 8:45

Цитата(zhuk_ao @ 9.10.2009, 23:37)

Автор: zhuk_ao 13.10.2009, 19:45

Цитата(Juliya @ 10.10.2009, 8:45)

Автор: malkolm 14.10.2009, 1:38

Правы, если все цифирки в формулу подставите верно. Что получается?

Автор: zhuk_ao 15.10.2009, 19:19

Это то понятно! Но все таки какое решение является правильным? И какое решение этой задачи?
Заранее благодарен!

Автор: Juliya 15.10.2009, 21:13

давайте ваше решение! вам все уже разжевано... цифры за вас подставить?

Автор: zhuk_ao 16.10.2009, 5:37

по формуле Байеса получается P(Н1|A) = P(H1)*P(A|H1)/P(A)
P(H1) = 0,05
P(A) = 0,04
P(A|H1) = ??? - это условная вероятность, но чего? У меня с этой величиной затруднения.

Автор: Juliya 16.10.2009, 8:42

Цитата(zhuk_ao @ 16.10.2009, 9:37)

Автор: zhuk_ao 16.10.2009, 13:26

Тогда получаеться

P(A) = 0.96 * (1-0.04) + 0.05 * 0.04 = 0.9236

P = 0.05*0.04 / 0.9236 = 0.00216

Автор: Juliya 16.10.2009, 16:22

Ну наконец-то! разобрались теперь?

Автор: zhuk_ao 16.10.2009, 21:33

Цитата(Juliya @ 16.10.2009, 16:22)

Ну наконец-то! разобрались теперь?

Автор: Juliya 17.10.2009, 5:30

Пожалуйста!

Автор: chocolet1 21.11.2022, 16:46

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Автор: bothbest 18.10.2025, 9:25

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