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Образовательный студенческий форум _ Теория вероятностей _ Два игрока A и B поочередно бросают монету.

Автор: wsnet 7.3.2007, 8:47

Два игрока A и B поочередно бросают монету. Выигравшим считается тот, у кого раньше выпадет герб. Первый бросок делает игрок A, второй – B, третий – A и т.д.
1. Найти вероятность того, что выиграл A не позднее k-го броска.
2. Каковы вероятности выигрыша для каждого игрока при сколь угодно длительной игре?
k=4


Вроде все просто. Но не могу понять как ее решать sad.gif

Автор: нонна 7.3.2007, 8:59

1. вероятность выпадения герба 0,5. решки-тоже 0,5. по формуле бернулли находим р4(1).
2. событие равновероятно, поэтому вероятность 0,5.

Автор: venja 7.3.2007, 15:16

Цитата(wsnet @ 7.3.2007, 13:47) *

Два игрока A и B поочередно бросают монету. Выигравшим считается тот, у кого раньше выпадет герб. Первый бросок делает игрок A, второй – B, третий – A и т.д.
1. Найти вероятность того, что выиграл A не позднее k-го броска.
2. Каковы вероятности выигрыша для каждого игрока при сколь угодно длительной игре?
k=4
Вроде все просто. Но не могу понять как ее решать sad.gif


Как раз все не так просто.
Кстати, в первом задании есть неоднозначность истолкования: Найти вероятность того, что выиграл A не позднее 4-го броска (к=4) - похоже надо считать все броски (и А и В) - так я и буду считать (а может быть надо считать только броски А?).
Обозначим события:
А1 - в первом броске выпал орел,
А2 - во втором броске выпал орел,
.
.
.
Ак - в к-м броске выпал орел,.....
Понятно, что вероятности всех этих событий =1/2.

1. Пусть событие С - выиграл A не позднее 4-го броска.
Тогда С=А1+(неА1)*(неА2)*А3 (первое слагаемое означает, что А выиграл на первом броске, а второе, что на третьем (после того, как кинул В), а на 4-м А никак выиграть не может, так как в моем толковании условия четные броски делает только В, а нечетные только А).
Тогда Р(С)=Р(А1+(неА1)*(неА2)*А3 )=(1/2)+(1/2)^3= 5/8.

2. Каковы вероятности выигрыша для каждого игрока при сколь угодно длительной игре?

Пусть событие С - игрок А выиграл (при сколь угодно длительной игре). Тогда
С=А1+(неА1)*(неА2)*А3 +(неА1)*(неА2)*(неА3)*(неА4)*А5+.... .
Точно также, как и ранее (используя несовместность слагаемых и независимость сомножителей):
Р(С)=(1/2)+(1/2)^3 +(1/2)^5+....=2/3 (сумма беск. геом. прогр.).
Тогда вероятность выигрыша для В (при сколь угодно длинной игре)=1-2/3=1/3.
Вроде так.
Расчеты лучше проверить.

Автор: Black Ghost 7.3.2007, 18:50

В 1-й задаче скорее всего 4 броска делает каждый (я думаю, что если A выигрывает только на 3-м броске (если считать броски и A, и cool.gif, то зачем тогда говорить "не позднее 4-го" - это же вроде как меньше или РАВНО 4-х бросков... Зачем тогда равно, если считать все броски? Хотя может это просто для того, чтобы запутать smile.gif...

Тогда тут прямо можно использовать формулу
С=А1+(неА1)*(неА2)*А3 +(неА1)*(неА2)*(неА3)*(неА4)*А5...

Цитата

2. событие равновероятно, поэтому вероятность 0,5.

Если задуматься, то шансов выиграть у первого игрока больше (хотя бы даже на первом шаге), чем у второго, потому что шансы второго игрока напрямую зависят от результатов первого.

Автор: venja 7.3.2007, 19:10

Цитата(Black Ghost @ 7.3.2007, 23:50) *

В 1-й задаче скорее всего 4 броска делает каждый (я думаю, что если A выигрывает только на 3-м броске (если считать броски и A, и cool.gif, то зачем тогда говорить "не позднее 4-го" - это же вроде как меньше или РАВНО 4-х бросков... Зачем тогда равно, если считать все броски? Хотя может это просто для того, чтобы запутать smile.gif...



Я тоже сначала именно так и подумал, и даже решение записал для этого случая из тех же соображений. Но потом посмотрел на строчку из условия задачи:
Первый бросок делает игрок A, второй – B, третий – A и т.д..
Видите, как идет нумерация бросков?
Поэтому переделал, хотя тот же нюанс смущает: "Зачем тогда равно, если считать все броски?".

Автор: Black Ghost 7.3.2007, 20:34

"Первый бросок делает игрок A, второй – B, третий – A и т.д.."
Перечитал... Что-то не обратил внимание сначала. Теперь не могу не согласиться, что нужно считать общее количество...
Интересно всё же спросить автора этой задачи, что он имеет в виду на самом деле smile.gif и зачем тогда даёт такое странное условие - включая равенство четырём

Автор: A_nn 8.3.2007, 4:43

Цитата(venja @ 7.3.2007, 22:10) *


Поэтому переделал, хотя тот же нюанс смущает: "Зачем тогда равно, если считать все броски?".




Думаю, что просто в данном варианте 4. А у других - другие k... Не мог же автор давать одни нечетные числа smile.gif . Правда, мог спросить вероятность того, что А не проиграет до k-го броска wink.gif .


Автор: wsnet 9.3.2007, 6:09

Всем большое спасибо за помощь

Автор: chocolet1 28.11.2022, 7:33

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